LOS ANGELES (CBSLA) — In his Monday briefing, Mayor Eric Garcetti said one model shows California could see its peak in coronavirus-related hospitalizations Friday and its peak in new deaths on Sunday.

That model, by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, predicts that 2,004 hospital beds, 470 intensive care unit beds and 412 ventilators will be needed Friday as hospitalizations are expected to peak. The model also predicts that California will report 52 COVID-related deaths on Sunday.

“But these projections, and as I mentioned there are many out there, are on the assumption that we keep up our work of the physical distancing that we have done and must continue to do,” Garcetti said. “If we take our foot off the gas right now and stop physical distancing, models show that our hospitals could be overloaded by May 12.”

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And models released last week by Los Angeles County showed the importance of continuing to follow local Safer at Home orders.

According to the model, if physical distancing efforts were to be relaxed, nearly 96 percent of Los Angeles County residents would contract COVID-19 by Aug. 1.

“And I don’t have to tell you what that would do to our health care system, how many people would die because we wouldn’t have enough beds,” Garcetti said. “So it underscores the importance of why we double down on what we’re doing.”

On Monday, L.A. County reported 239 new cases and 25 deaths, bringing the total to 9,420 cases and 320 deaths.

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