LOS ANGELES (CBS) — A report in the August issue of Geology by researchers at UC Irvine and Arizona State University suggest the fault is long overdue for a major quake — running from Monterey County to the Salton Sea, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The last major rupture on the San Andreas was in 1857.

Until recently, experts believed that the section of the fault through the Carrizo Plain, located approximately 100 miles northwest of Los Angeles, would remain dormant for at least another century.

Not according to the latest research.

“The next earthquake could be sooner than later,” said Lisa Grant Ludwig of UC Irvine, who helped write the study.

U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Lucy Jones, who was not involved in the study, said it was possible that the entire southern San Andreas fault could rupture.

Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, calculated that would produce a magnitude-8.1 quake. Jones said that figure sounds about right.

The northern section of the fault, which begins north of Parkfield and ends in San Benito County, tends to move at a constant creep. And because stress is relieved regularly, large quakes don’t occur there, The Times reported.

Grant Ludwig, who also helped write the study, said an earthquake running the length of the southern section is not assured, but “a possibility that should be considered and previously was not.”

(©2010 CBS Local Media, a division of CBS Radio Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Wire services contributed to this report.)

Comments (37)
  1. GWB says:

    “the big one will be even bigger”
    That’s what she said!

    1. John says:

      That’s funny

  2. Josh says:

    I thought I heard years ago that that Big One will last 5 minutes long and be 9.0+. I live in SFV so I remember hearing when the Northridge quake hit that that quake was worse then the Big One cause the Northridge quake was so violent.

    1. Wiley C says:

      That’s all I can last at my age
      5 minutes

    2. Matu says:

      Jan October 9, 2011 Driving down a back road in Pennsylvania years ago, I was hit by a deer. Yes, it’s true. The deer hit me. He was rnnniug, came upon a downward hill and couldn’t stop. I happened to be driving by and didn’t see him til he was approaching from the driver’s side of the car. Like you, I was fortunate that the major force of the deer hit the front bumper and hood of my little car.

  3. Tim McDermott says:

    I don’t know who wrote some of this, but the San Andreas Fault does not end in San Benito County but goes on up past the Bay Area. If the norhern section of the fault does not have large ruptures, what was San Francisco 1906?

    1. Wiley C says:

      Author stated the Northern section constantly moves Ex. Holister area
      therefore less pressure, less chance of huge quake
      Mid Andreas Carrizo Plain is area near Kettleman
      SF Quake was liquid faction, poor building codes, fires

    2. QED says:

      Nice catch!

    3. Yaqui says:

      Posted on I like the idea of an October to February lugeae. But I might even take it one step further and run it from November through March. That’s one thing the NFL has that no other lugeaes have is that they leave us wanting more. I think only the hardest core fans are sad to see the ends of the NBA, MLB and NHL seasons – but in the NFL, I think most people are nowhere near ready for it to end. I remember as a kid thinking “the NFL season is already 3/4 over!”

  4. bob says:

    Northridge was pretty bad, but so were LAnders and Big Bear, what 15 mins apart.

  5. Spencer says:

    Unfortunately we cannot predict an earthquake, but we can be prepared. I have a few duffel bags ready to go with bare necessities. I also keep a backpack in my car with me with snacks water and a survival kit. After witnessing Hurricane Katrina on tv I don’t want to rely on FEMA. Plus people will be acting like animals, so I have a few hundred rounds of ammo for my safety.

    1. Comunidadcatolica says:

      amy October 19, 2011 Your scepial recipe you posted looked like same homemade yummy soup my mom made the girls and I Monday! If that’s vegetable soup. Something I couldn’t live without is my obsession with blueberries

  6. jack says:

    It was foretold by the prophet of the hour, William Marion Branham. it is a “thus says the lord”,los angeles shall sink in the sea. It is time for everyone to be ready for the coming of the lord Jesus Christ

    1. Jerry Ovoh says:

      Jack,can u tell me about this prophet? my email is jerro008@yahoo.com

  7. Durchblicker says:

    jack, it would be too soon just now. Other developments are to happen before.

    1. Matias says:

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    2. Jessica says:

      baulbshl120 on October 20, 2011 this isnt a movie, but the tv series The Unit would make a great game. story mode could follow the seasons’ stories and online could be like 5or6 against 25. the 5or6 would have more health and WAAAAY better weapons and resources. expansion packs could come out after each season for more missions. the actors would probably come back. also, you could customize characters and callsigns for online and off

  8. Petros says:

    Durchblicker, what other developments are to happen before? Just curious – me thought this planet is just surviving by God’s long-suffering like in the days of Noah. God was already fed up by the time Noah started blasting his Message.

  9. Michael says:

    California will go beneath thee ocean….

  10. Durchblicker says:

    Petros, His Wife has to make herself ready – you remember? There is no unity regarding the Faith. Every church has its own Message creed. There are many heretics (False anionted Ones, you remember?) Where is the five fold of Ephesians 4:11-15? Where is the prophetic ministry of the Bride? Where are the nine divers gifts in the church? Where is the Spoken Word-Ministry?

  11. Durchblicker says:

    Petros, up by the time Noah started blasting his Message?

    Oh, He gave mankind 120 years to repent. HE was not in a hurry. He’s never in a hurry.

  12. Gracetome says:

    Those of you who are asleep – WAKE UP. Time is running out! The day that God will come and rapture His Bride is at hand. Don’t be caught asleep.

  13. Durchblicker says:

    Gracetome, where is She, His Bride? Do you really know one Member of the Bride?

  14. Niteshi says:

    Приветствую Предлагаю обмен ссылками (постовыми) вашего блога losangeles.cbslocal.com с моим.
    Заранее благодарен за ответ.
    С уважением, Александр.

  15. Durchblicker says:

    Ja, liebe Freunde, wenn ihr nicht antworten wollt, obwohl diese Fragen im Raum stehen, werde ich mich wieder verabschieden. Möge der Herr euch gnädig sein.
    I will say Good Bye, friends, if you prefer to silence the issues which were presented here. May the Lord grant Grace to you.

  16. johnstone chitupira says:

    TITANIC SONG (near my God to thee) will be repeated one of these days & its not far from now.

    God help me to prepare and not be the foolish virgin.


  17. Amaria says:

    California the city of Angels will sink.Under the sea it will vanish,it was prophesied by William Branham. .Take heed time is nigh.

  18. Amaria says:

    I meant los Angeles in California ,the so called city of angels

    1. Lola says:

      October 6, 2011 love love love fcnreh toast!Lindsay @ The Lean Green Bean recently posted..

  19. bruce says:

    The prophet has said it,after this a little while then rapture

  20. cleopas says:

    God said it through His prophet William Marrion Branham, who can stop it? No one . What is left is to prepare ourselves. The prophet said pary every hour not every day. Time is no more.

  21. Teresita says:

    naeosdomesticottd October 28, 2011 I think I read 30 minutes in Heaven a few years ago … it was another interesting one!

  22. Anushka says:

    MyFreeProductSamples on October 14, 2011 @Thekissfamily2 That’s funny. Yeah it’s ltltie random free stuff like that when you just have to say “Welp, it was free!”

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