LOS ANGELES (CBSLA) — A study is predicting Southern California’s local governments will suffer “severe and long-lasting” impacts from the coronavirus crisis.

Los Angeles, Imperial, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties are predicted to have an unemployment rate of 19.3% this year and 12.2% in 2021. The sharp change comes after the region saw an unemployment rate of about 4% in January and February.

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The analysis by the Southern California Association of Governments is projecting a decrease in taxable sales of 26% to 38% this year and next year, which would mean between a loss of $178 to $264 billion for local governments.

 “This is unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes,” Executive Director Kome Ajise said.

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The biggest sales drop will be from restaurants, which are expected to lose between 53% and 65% of its business over the next two years. Retailers would also see a sales decrease of 43% to 57%, car dealers and parts store sales are projected to drop 38% to 48% and home furnishing and appliance sales are expected to drop 34% to 43%.

“There is no segment of our economy that is not impacted one way or another by COVID-19, which only emphasizes the need for an inclusive economic development strategy moving forward,” Rex Richardson, a Long Beach City councilman and the association’s first vice president.

The analysts believe the pace of the economic recovery will be determined by how businesses reopen and the how quickly a vaccine is available to the public.

The study predicts the low point will be June 1, followed by a long recovery period, with economic impacts felt through the end of 2021.

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(© Copyright 2020 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. City News Service contributed to this report.)