Trump Policies Could Be More Benefit Than Burden For California

LOS ANGELES (CBSLA.com) — The presidential election has thrown California’s economic future into turmoil, but maybe for the better, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast released Tuesday.

President-elect Donald Trump’s hardline stance on immigration and trade policy could cost the state any potential federal spending on infrastructure and upgrades. But on the other hand, if he succeeds in increasing spending on defense, California could benefit greatly, according to the report.

Senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg noted in his report on the state economy that Trump’s proposed increase in defense spending “will be disproportionately directed to California as sophisticated airplanes, weaponry, missiles and ships require the technology that is produced here.”

“Moreover, there are few places to build the proposed 150 new warships, and San Diego is one of them,” Nickelsburg wrote. “Regionally, we expect a positive impact in the Bay Area and in coastal Southern California.”

California could also benefit from potential federal spending on infrastructure repair and upgrades, but Trump’s stated intention to limit funding for “sanctuary cities” — a label generally placed on cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco, which are regarded as friendly to immigrants without visas — could throw the impact of such an effort into question. Nickelsburg noted, however, that Republicans may not be able to get an infrastructure-funding package approved without support from the state’s sizeable congressional delegation, meaning there would have to be some assurances of funds being spent locally.

Trump’s proclaimed intention to re-negotiate trade deals — most notably with China and Mexico — is also a wild card for the local economy.

“It may be that the stick works and the trade deals are re-negotiated with a larger volume of trade going both ways,” Nickelsburg wrote. “It is hard to say, and not the most likely outcome we see with our national forecast. Quite possibly there will be a reduced volume of trade, and depending on whether or not the stick is swung, maybe a greatly reduced volume of trade.”

Despite all of the questions, Nickelsburg said the new forecast for the coming years is “slightly higher than our previous one through the end of 2017.”

“This reflects the stimulus assumed in the national forecast, particularly through the defense appropriations,” he wrote. “The weakness relative to the U.S. after that reflects the fact that California, having already reached near full-employment will benefit less from further stimulus than rust belt states and the fact that deportations of unskilled workers will impact food harvesting and food processing.”

In a separate report, UCLA Anderson Forecast economist William Yu suggested that Trump’s vow to deport immigrants with criminal records living in the country illegally could have a notable impact in Los Angeles County, which Yu estimated houses at least 1 million undocumented immigrants. An exodus of some undocumented immigrants is expected during the Trump presidency because of enforced immigration laws, the continuing rising costs of housing and reduced employment due to the incremental rise of minimum wage to $15.

It’s not yet known what Trump’s policies on high-skilled immigration will mean for Los Angeles, and the president-elect could even expand immigration of such workers to fuel growth during his administration, Yu’s report noted.

(©2016 CBS Local Media, a division of CBS Radio Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Wire services contributed to this report.)

Comments

One Comment

  1. If California continues to allow illegal criminals and potential terrorist in sanctuary cities, then the defense industry jobs need to go elsewhere. Let the Hollywood libs, beach elites and dimwits of San Fran pay higher taxes to support Sanctuary Cities and allow the criminal gang members to move into those exclusive neighborhoods. Cut off all Federal Aid to Beck’s LAPD and others that will refuse to do their job. Let California suffer period!

  2. Greg Gadfly says:

    President elect Trump has stated his position several times.

    If you are an illegal immigrant and have been committing crimes, “bad hombres” you will be going home, otherwise we are glad to have you. Many of you work very hard and are productive.

    An example of a person that should go home…

    A corrupt Mexican DEA employee has been using his vehicle to commit insurance fraud.

    His vehicle is described as a cream colored older model Cadillac Escalade. He was last seen running his scam at the one of the major casino’s self park parking garage in Las Vegas.

    He tried the scam on me….

    I got into my vehicle which was parked on the top floor of the self park garage. I had parked my car in an area with many open spots around me. The lot was only about 2/3 full.

    As I started my car, I glanced up to look into my rear view mirror when I watched this older cream colored Cadillac quickly pull up and place the front of his car directly behind me and sit. His car was perfectly positioned so that I might have missed it if I had not seen him drive up. I watched for a few more moments when he spotted me watching him in the rear view mirror. He then quickly pulled back then forward then back and forward again and I presume he exited the parking lot because as I left I could not see his car anywhere.

    Description: ~2005 Cream colored Cadillac Escalade,mexican male driver approximately 30 years of age with short military style hair cut, last spotted at the $%#@ parking garage.

    I called the Casino security and gave them a description of the car and driver. I also indicated I was parked so that they could see the entire incident on security cameras.

    If you see this person in a casino parking lot, contact the casino security.

    We all know Mexico has a problem with corrupt law enforcement. With corruption being as pervasive as it is in Mexico, why would law enforcement employees of Mexican descent in the U.S. be any different?

    Everyone be careful. He is a corrupt piece-of-s**t..

    I had a very good look at this person as I stared into my rear view mirror waiting for him to move. I have seen him several other times thereafter. CORRUPT FBI AND DEA EMPLOYEES WILL COMMIT MURDER TO COVER UP THEIR CRIMES.

    The reality is that this piece-of-s**t and others like him from the Department of Justice will continue to steal from their suspects.

    No one will do anything. Too many in the DoJ benefit from stealing from suspects.
    The past eight years worth of lax hiring criteria has turned the FBI, DEA, etc… into organized crime whose members prey on their suspects, those who can not defend themselves.

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