Pac-12 Bracketology: How Many Teams Will Reach NCAA Tournament?

By Andrew Kahn

It’s not even February, but it’s never too early to start thinking about the NCAA Tournament field. Which Pac-12 teams are in a good position to earn a bid? Which have a lot more work to do? With only two teams ranked in the top 25, there might not be much conference representation at the Big Dance.

Arizona Wildcats (18-2, 6-1)

Arizona is looking at a 2 seed right now. That’s where the godfather of bracketology, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, has the Wildcats, as does Bracket Matrix, a composite from bracketologists all over the web. Seattle and Portland are early-round hosts this year, and Arizona would be happy to land in either spot. The Wildcats have some quality nonconference wins: Kansas State and San Diego State in Maui; Gonzaga.

Utah Utes (16-3, 6-1)

Utah is a 3 seed right now, both in Lunardi’s bracket and the Matrix consensus. The Utes lost close games to San Diego State and Kansas but did beat Wichita State. They’ll have a chance to avenge their only league loss when the host Arizona on Feb. 28.

Stanford Cardinal (14-5, 5-2)

Lunardi’s bracket matches the consensus once again, and Stanford is an 8 seed. (If you’re sensing a trend here, there’s definitely reason to believe Lunardi influences other bracket predictions.) Stanford has a nice win at Texas but a bad loss at DePaul. If they remain in third place in the Pac-12, you figure they’ll get a bid.

Washington Huskies (14-5, 3-4)

Washington is definitely on the bubble right now. Lunardi has them as his second team out of the field, while Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has the Huskies as a 10 seed. Bracket Matrix has them as a 12 seed. Washington is an interesting case. They beat San Diego State (at home) and Oklahoma (in Las Vegas) but lost to Stony Brook at home. Their conference résumé looks similar: nice wins against Oregon State, Oregon, and Colorado but bad losses to California and Washington State.

The good news for the Huskies? Their remaining games against Arizona, Stanford, and Utah are at home. The bad news? They’ll be playing without the country’s top shot blocker, Robert Upshaw, who was dismissed from the team yesterday, reportedly for failing another drug test. Upshaw averaged 10.9 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.4 blocks. A Pac-12 coach had told me teams have to adjust their game plan against Washington because of Upshaw’s shot-blocking ability. The Huskies were fifth in the country in two-point field goal percentage defense, but expect opponents to attack the rim more often and more successfully going forward.

Oregon State Beavers (14-5, 5-2)

Not a single bracketologist has a Pac-12 team outside the aforementioned quartet currently in the field of 68. That could change, of course, and CBS’ Palm said the two Oregon schools are on his radar. The Beavers have been a pleasant surprise this year under first year coach Wayne Tinkle. Picked to finish last in the preseason media poll, they’ve ridden their defense to a 5-2 conference mark, including a win over Arizona. What’s holding them back is their dismal RPI, due in large part to one of the nation’s worst nonconference schedules. Oregon State lost to Oklahoma State, Auburn, and Quinnipiac and beat nobody of note. Their RPI (currently ranked 77th) is on the rise, and this week—an Arizona/Arizona State road trip—might give us a much better idea of where the Beavers stand.

Oregon Ducks (14-6, 4-3)

As noted, Oregon is not in the projected field but is in the discussion. The Ducks don’t have a signature win—in or out of conference—but will get a chance on Wednesday at Arizona. They close their regular season with road games against Stanford and Oregon State, games that could go a long way in determining their postseason fate.

Andrew Kahn is a regular contributor to CBS Local who also writes for Newsday and The Wall Street Journal. He writes about college basketball and other sports at AndrewJKahn.com. Email him at andrewjkahn@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter at @AndrewKahn.