UCLA Forecast Downplays Economic Recovery Hopes Despite Surge In Jobs
LOS ANGELES (CBS) — Signs of life in the Southland job market in recent months are likely not enough to signal any real economic recovery — at least not yet, according to an economic forecast released Wednesday.
KNX 1070’s John Brooks reports despite some promising data, UCLA economists expect 2012 to be marked by slow but steady growth.
An increase in the number of jobs created in September and October is unlikely to offset the anticipated sluggishness of the national and international financial picture, said senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg.
“We see continued growth in California, but just as with the U.S. not rapid growth, and 2012 will still be a year of adjustment as we start moving to more sustainable takeoff,” said Nickelsburg.
Nickelsburg noted in the report that there has been job growth across California, pushing the unemployment rate down from 12.1 percent to 11.7 percent, while the national unemployment rate dropped by only 0.1 percent.
He expects the state jobless rate to dip slight next year, putting it on a track toward single digits, although it will more likely hover near 11.6 percent, Nickelsburg wrote.
The rate will average about 10.5 percent in 2013, and it could potentially drop into the single digits by 2014, he predicted.
“We might be witnessing the return of the recovery, indeed the indications are strong enough to slightly boost our forecast, but the headwinds are substantial and the resumption of employment growth we are seeing shifts our view of the recovery forward, but it does not change our general view of how the recovery will play out in the coming years,” according to the forecast.
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