Blog: First Rains of the Winter Season

Hello my good friends,

Well, this looks like one of the earliest starts to our winter rainy season I can remember. The forecast models are still hanging on to two storm systems moving into the area this week. The first looks like it will hit late Monday into early Tuesday. The rainfall for this system should stay north of Santa Barbara…light drizzle may drift south to our area overnight Monday.

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The second system looks more potent and could bring upwards of 1/2″ of rain. Now if this were in the middle of the winter…I’d say no big deal, but because it is the beginning of the season it’s a bit more significant. The timing of storm two looks like mid-day Wednesday through Wednesday evening. It’s moving along at a pretty good clip.

Here are the only caveats to this forecast…

1. the faster the storm moves, the less rainfall…

2. Forecast models do a very bad job with early season storms…they appear much worse on the forecast model than what actually comes in, just because it takes some time for these models to adjust to a winter pattern. Nevertheless this will be a colder, windier, and possibly wetter week than we’ve had in a long time. So let the fun begin!


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