UCLA: Jobless Rate To Top Double-Digits Through 2013

LOS ANGELES (CBS) — The recent slowdown in the U.S. jobs market may just be the beginning of what could be another long year for millions of unemployed Americans, according to a new economic forecast.

The report released by the UCLA Anderson School of Management on Wednesday points to a sharp dip in hiring over in the second quarter of 2011, with one economist predicting even more pain to come.

California’s unemployment rate could spike another 1.7 percent over the remainder of the year, said UCLA Anderson Forecast senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg.

And while Nickelsburg expects hiring to pick up in the next two years, he warns the unemployment rate isn’t expected to drop below double-digits until the second quarter of 2013.

“This shift is in part due to demographics and does not bode well for robust recovery in residential construction in the near future,” Nickelsburg wrote. “Our national forecast has slower growth in consumer spending. ”

“But, as with employment, growth is slow and uneven,” he added.

Nickelsburg told KNX 1070’s John Brooks that jobs building single-family homes are not likely to return anytime soon, which could force millions of Southland residents to relocate.

“I wouldn’t call it the death of suburbia, but you’re going to see some difficulties on the periphery for some time to come,” said Nickelsburg.

The dragging pace in employment gains this year can be attributed to slow growth in consumer spending nationally, and a shift in statewide housing demand toward condominiums and apartments instead of homes — causing a significant shift on the construction industry.

Nickelsburg also noted that the unexpected start of the year — when 95,000 new payroll jobs were added to the market — led forecasters to consider revising their prediction of slow growth for the year.

“The balance of the first quarter, as well as April and May in the current quarter, showed our hesitation to be justified,” Nickelsburg wrote.

“While California is still adding jobs, it is at a much more subdued pace and unfortunately, we are on course to grow at our previously forecast slow rate.”

(©2011 CBS Local Media, a division of CBS Radio Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Wire services contributed to this report.)

  • Everyday Guy

    Some hope and change, isn’t it?

  • Really

    Politics as usual in D.C. ALL of those no good bas#$@&* need to be tthrown out!

  • Not aUCLA grad

    So if I am reading this correctly..unemployment will top double digits? hmmm..ok so to top it means it will be triple digits? as in 100%… because 99.9 is a double digit ,,, the .9 isn’t counted because it is part of the digit preceding it.
    Much like when buying gas at $4:09 9/10ths…. its really $4: 10 but it looks cheaper to put 9/10ths
    When we reach the 100% unemployment rate can we ALL collect insurance?

  • Really

    The present unemployment rate here in California is almost 12% if I’m not mistaken. Add two more points, and you have 14% coupled with little growth predicted to 2013. That’s 1.5 years from now. There will be a civil war brewing in the streets of America soon if our leaders can’t get this under control. Yet, they are out campaigning for the next 4 years….disgusting.

  • Small Business Guy

    That is what happens when someone with no real world experience decides he knows how jobs are created. You would think such a smart man would look to the eurosocialist experiments to see that goverment directed economies fail miserably. Of course, he knows better than job creators in this country.

  • The Unbeliever

    Unemployment at all new high already and now predicting the rate to top double digits in the next 2 years? YET!!! I still see the sports bar lounges, restaurants, Disneyland (Amusement parks) Sushi Bars, electronics stores(Apple), movie theaters, the Malls filled to capacity, people spending like there’s no tomorrow. I see people at staples in Los Angeles catching and expensive Laker game? Kids on Iphones, Kids wearing the latest fashions, people driving new cars? Etc….

    What Recession

  • Worried American =(

    It’s a trickle effect, construction work has come to a freezing point, because there isn’t any new home projects being built or bought. People can’t afford a home or being foreclosed due to a job loss, and no hope. Companies freezing jobs, and if they do hire, it’s part time, temp work, or low paying jobs (McDonalds) $ 7.50 hr and only the teenagers, because they don’t demand much healthcare. If you’re in your 40’s and up, you’re in a big trouble, better have an MBA or know someone in the industry?

    What a beautiful America we live in – God Bless America!!!!

  • http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2011/06/17/california-unemployment-rate-dips-but-29000-jobs-lost/ California Unemployment Rate Dips, But 29,000 Jobs Lost « CBS Los Angeles

    […] also disputed a report earlier this week from the UCLA Anderson School of Management that forecast sluggish job growth all the way through […]

blog comments powered by Disqus
Sandwich Generation

Listen Live